# Sports Betting Math (SportsBettingMath.org)

> Sports Betting Math is an independent mathematical research portal by the Applied Probability Institute, providing open-source calculators and academic publications for sports wagering probability analysis.

## Mission
To deconstruct bookmaker margin structures, publish transparent margin stripping algorithms (Multiplicative, Additive, Power, Shin), and provide verifiable open-source calculators so researchers and analysts can evaluate sports markets through pure mathematical probability.

## Core Calculators
- [No-Vig Fair Odds Calculator](https://sportsbettingmath.org/en/tools/no-vig-calculator): Strips bookmaker overround using 4 methods (Multiplicative, Additive, Power, Shin) to reveal true fair probabilities. Supports 2-way and 3-way (1X2) markets.
- [Expected Value (+EV) Calculator](https://sportsbettingmath.org/en/tools/ev-calculator): Computes expected value percentage, +EV/-EV verdict, expected profit per $100 wagered, and Closing Line Value (CLV) comparison.
- [Kelly Criterion Calculator](https://sportsbettingmath.org/en/tools/kelly-calculator): Optimal stake sizing using Full/Half/Quarter Kelly fractions with Risk of Ruin estimation. Based on Kelly (1956) geometric growth maximization.
- [Poisson Goal Model Calculator](https://sportsbettingmath.org/en/tools/poisson-calculator): Match outcome probability modeling using independent Poisson distributions — 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS (Both Teams To Score), and 6×6 Correct Score probability matrix.

## Research Publications
- [No-Vig Fair Odds Explained](https://sportsbettingmath.org/en/learn/no-vig-fair-odds-explained): Mathematical derivation of 4 margin stripping algorithms with worked examples using real match odds.
- [Expected Value & +EV Betting](https://sportsbettingmath.org/en/learn/expected-value-positive-ev-betting): EV formula derivation, CLV methodology, and mathematical proof of why 98% of bettors lose to margins > 5%.
- [Kelly Criterion Staking Guide](https://sportsbettingmath.org/en/learn/kelly-criterion-staking-guide): Kelly (1956) formula derivation from geometric growth maximization, fractional Kelly comparison, Risk of Ruin Monte Carlo analysis.
- [Poisson Goal Expectancy Model](https://sportsbettingmath.org/en/learn/poisson-goal-expectancy-model): Poisson PMF modeling for football goals, correct score matrix construction, Over/Under 2.5 derivation, Dixon-Coles (1997) correction for low-scoring outcomes.

## Research Divisions
- **SBM Odds Analysis Division**: Margin decomposition, implied probability extraction, fair odds computation, expected value quantification across global sports markets.
- **SBM Stochastic Modeling Lab**: Poisson goal distribution modeling, Kelly criterion staking optimization, Monte Carlo risk-of-ruin simulations.

## Multilingual Support
- [English](https://sportsbettingmath.org/en/): International research portal and calculator suite.
- [Português](https://sportsbettingmath.org/pt/): Portal de pesquisa e calculadoras para o Brasil.
- [Español](https://sportsbettingmath.org/es/): Portal de investigación y herramientas para América Latina.
- [Русский](https://sportsbettingmath.org/ru/): Исследовательский портал и калькуляторы для СНГ.

## Operational Model & Commercial Disclosure
SportsBettingMath.org operates as an independent mathematical research portal published by the Applied Probability Institute. All calculators execute entirely client-side in the user's browser via vanilla JavaScript — zero data is transmitted to external servers. To sustain open research, the Institute maintains transparent affiliate partnerships with licensed sportsbooks (such as 1win), receiving referral compensation when users access operator environments through disclosed gateway routes. No predictions, tips, or betting advice are provided — strictly empirical mathematics and probability distributions.

## Optional
- [Full Mathematical Specification](https://sportsbettingmath.org/llms-full.txt): Complete formulas, algorithms, and derivations for all calculators.
- [GitHub Organization](https://github.com/applied-probability-institute): Open-source calculator code and verification tools.