About the Institute
Applied probability, actuarial science, and quantitative sports modeling
Applied Probability Institute is the publisher name for Sports Betting Math. This educational project explains odds, model assumptions and probability calculations. Editorial bylines organize topics and do not represent verified academic appointments or external peer review.
Research Team
SBM Odds Analysis Division
Editorial byline: odds and margin models
Member: Applied Probability Institute
This topic byline groups articles about odds normalization, expected value and market prices. It is not a named individual or a claim of verified academic credentials.
SBM Stochastic Modeling Lab
Editorial byline: match and bankroll models
Member: Applied Probability Institute
This topic byline groups articles about Poisson models, Kelly sizing and simulation. It is an editorial label, not evidence of a staffed laboratory or independently verified qualifications.
Open-Source & Verifiable Methodology
Articles explain formulas, model assumptions and worked examples. Selected empirical studies provide data and scripts for checking their results.
Market pricing converted into normalized decimal and implied probabilities across European, American, and Fractional formats.
Normalize complete market prices under a specified Multiplicative, Additive, Power or Shin model. The result is a probability estimate, not observed truth.
Goal expectancy engines run bivariate Poisson simulations to project 1X2, Over/Under, and score probability surfaces.
Kelly maximizes expected logarithmic growth under specified probabilities and payout assumptions. It does not cap drawdown or guarantee realized profit.
Applied Probability Institute
Open-Source Code Policy
Selected studies include downloadable data and analysis scripts; articles include worked formulas and code samples. Check the files and stated assumptions for each study.
Conflict of Interest & Ethics
The site combines mathematical education with affiliate links to sportsbooks. Those links can generate compensation; their presence is not evidence of favorable odds or validated model performance.