Applied Research & Open Data
Empirical studies with stated methods, downloadable data and analysis scripts.
Overround Decomposition in European Football Markets: An Empirical Analysis of 2,490 Closing Lines
Comprehensive study isolating bookmaker vigorish from Pinnacle and market closing odds across 2,490 Premier League matches (2019–2026, source football-data.co.uk) using Multiplicative, Additive, Power, and Shin models.
EPL Closing Lines & Fair Odds Dataset (2019–2026)
Real dataset of 2,490 Premier League matches (2019–2026, source football-data.co.uk) featuring Pinnacle and market average closing lines, overround, and de-vigged fair probabilities.
Reproducible Analysis Script (Python 3)
Open-source Python pipeline to independently replicate all tables, statistical models, overround distributions, and Shin parameter calculations.
python epl_closing_lines_analysis.py Live Dataset Sample (First 5 Rows)
Sample fixtures from 2,490 EPL matches (2019–2026, source football-data.co.uk) demonstrating raw closing odds and true probability derivations (Multiplicative vs Shin)
| ID | Season | Date | Fixture | Closing Odds (1 / X / 2) | Overround | Mult Fair (H) | Shin True (H) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 2019-20 | 2019-08-09 | Liverpool vs Norwich | 1.14 / 10.43 / 19.63 | 2.40% | 85.66% | 86.60% |
| #2 | 2019-20 | 2019-08-10 | West Ham vs Man City | 11.11 / 6.68 / 1.27 | 2.71% | 8.76% | 8.27% |
| #3 | 2019-20 | 2019-08-10 | Bournemouth vs Sheffield United | 1.98 / 3.67 / 4.06 | 2.38% | 49.33% | 49.61% |
| #4 | 2019-20 | 2019-08-10 | Burnley vs Southampton | 2.71 / 3.19 / 2.90 | 2.73% | 35.92% | 35.97% |
| #5 | 2019-20 | 2019-08-10 | Crystal Palace vs Everton | 3.37 / 3.45 / 2.27 | 2.71% | 28.89% | 28.80% |
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