Poisson Goal Model
Simulate football goal distributions, project 1X2 probabilities, Over/Under totals, and exact score matrices.
The visible matrix shows scores 0–5. Market probabilities sum scores 0–32 for expected goals 0.1–5 per team; omitted joint probability is below 1e-12.
Results & Markets
Totals (2.5)
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score Matrix
| Away Goals | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Home Goals | 0 | --% | --% | --% | --% | --% | --% |
| 1 | --% | --% | --% | --% | --% | --% | |
| 2 | --% | --% | --% | --% | --% | --% | |
| 3 | --% | --% | --% | --% | --% | --% | |
| 4 | --% | --% | --% | --% | --% | --% | |
| 5 | --% | --% | --% | --% | --% | --% | |
The probabilities follow the entered goal rates and Poisson assumptions. They do not include every team or match effect. Compare prices only for the same market and settlement period.
Compare the same market
Partner links
1win Sports: check the event, quoted odds and settlement rules
What the price includes → Visit 1win Sports 18+ · Terms on site
Stake Sportsbook: compare the same event, market and settlement rules
What the price includes → Visit Stake 18+ · Terms on siteCheck the current price, exact market, settlement rules and availability in your country. A calculator result depends on its assumptions and does not verify a live betting opportunity.